Again and Again, I'm Telling You, Tommy's Not Winning!

I've said it a bunch of times, and Public Policy Polling is starting to reflect it, Tommy
Thompson is not winning the Republican Neo-Stalwart primary for US Senate. Instead of sending you to a pay-wall hotlink of the MJS, I will send you to The Hill for their write-up showing Eric Hovde's TV carpet bombs are working against Tommy Thompson. From the article:

Hovde leads Thompson by 31 to 29 percent, with former Rep. Mark Neumann (R-Wis.) pulling 15 percent support and Wisconsin state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald at 9 percent.

Wow, that's a little different than the last poll from the Marquette University Law School, which had an impressive 25% undecided and Thompson leading Hovde by double digits. Now, there is a lot to dig into with this poll, such as what will happen with Neumann starting to now air ads, and groups starting to hit both Thompson and Hovde in support of Tammy Baldwin, the lone Democrat.

Last night, at my inaugural outing with the new "Drinking Liberally - Fond du Lac" group, we had a lively discussion about this topic. I seem to think that Hovde or Neumann are the odds on favorites, while many of those who attended could not believe that someone with as deep a history as Thompson cannot win. They also were very, very curious about Jeff Fitzgerald's campaign, which I think is safe to say, lifeless due to lack of funds.

All this being said, one thing that the group brought up, which is a very valid point, is that it is still early. A lot can change between now and August, and if the flood of new ads this week is any indication, the "Citizens United" fueled "ad wars" are only just beginning. But, this poll shows something of a trend that has been happening in Wisconsin for a while now, Republicans like Tommy Thompson are yesterday's news, and rich bankers/businessmen who are conservative Neo-Stalwarts are in. Tommy doesn't do well with this environment, and it's a big part of the reason why he's not winning. Here it is directly in the poll results:

Hovde’s lead comes from an 18 point advantage over Thompson with voters who identified with the Tea Party and a 14 point lead with Independents. Hovde seems to have gathered much of his support from the 50% of GOP voters who would prefer a candidate more conservative than Thompson.

Tammy's numbers match up well with all four vying for the Neo-Stalwart vote in August, which is welcomed news to Democrats. Yet, if you're a Tommy T. fan, the poll makes it clear, watch out!