Land of Confusion: Part III - Eau Claire County

"This is the world we live in 
And these are the names we're given
Stand up and let's start showing
Just where our lives are going to"


Land of Confusion Part III: Eau Claire County

The Madison Capital Times just posted a recap of the elections as they see it, and it's hard to argue with most of their analysis.

But, in this installment of "Land of Confusion", I want to look at Eau Claire County. While some may have termed this a "tie" on election night 2012 and don't totally flip it to Governor Walker considering his narrow victory of only 160 votes, I think we need to look at the larger trend lines. This is a county whose Democrats street cred has been failing in recent years.

First, visually, the 2004 Presidential Election. As you can see from the map on the right, Eau Claire County is the northern tip of a blue sea buttressing the Mississippi River. I will admit, from my East-Central Wisconsin perch, it's hard for me to give any accurate view of the county. I can read websites and remember my two hockey trips through there from 5th Grade, but at the end of the day, one would think with two Universities close, it would trend Democratic.

While Presidential year politics are fun to view, the real "meat" for Democrats are the off-year elections, and years with Gubernatorial Elections. The 2006 Doyle - Green match-up is a great place to start.

	Gubernatorial Candidate	Lt. Gubernatorial Candidate	Political Party	Popular Vote
	Jim Doyle	Barbara C. Lawton	Democratic	22,240	57.16%
	Mark Green	Jean Hundertmark	Republican	15,733	40.43%

Look at that. A nice, healthy turnout from Democrats, and getting in the upper 50%'s for votes. 2006 was a good year for Democrats statewide, but I can't believe it was their "high water mark" in  what is possible. For that we look to the 2008 Presidential Election:

	Presidential Candidate	Vice Presidential Candidate	Political Party	Popular Vote
	Barack H. Obama	Joseph R. Biden, Jr.	Democratic	33,146	60.25%
	John S. McCain, III	Sarah Palin	Republican	20,959	38.10%

Wow, improving their turnout by over 10,000! Republicans jumped too, getting around 5,000 additional votes (give or take). 2008 is usually considered the "high water mark" for Democrats. It would represent what one could reasonably think their largest turnout would be.

Now brace yourself....

2010 Gubernatorial Election:

	Gubernatorial Candidate	Lt. Gubernatorial Candidate	Political Party	Popular Vote
	Tom Barrett	Tom Nelson	Democratic	18,454	49.70%
	Scott Walker	Rebecca Kleefisch	Republican	18,018	48.52%

OUCH!  How the hell did Democrats lose so may votes? It's not that they lost 14,692 from 2008, it's that they lost 3,786 since the 2006 Gubernatorial Election. Furthermore, Republicans again improved on their turnout since 2006. What I find interesting: Democrats lose 3,786 votes, Republicans gained 2,285 votes. How many of those people were flippers? How many just stayed home? How many of that 33,146 who didn't turn out for Barrett were just disaffected? How many didn't realize there was an election?

Now, what about June 5th, 2012? 

Walker: 49.8% - 20,720

Barrett: 49.4% - 20,560

Yikes... Republicans trend up again! This time, they gained 2,702! They have steadily gained over 2,000 votes since 2006! What are we doing in this county? How is our messaging not getting through? What is changing in this county? Is this another place where Milwaukee bashing has worked well? How much was spent in this TV market? Eau Clare's NBC station (before being knocked off the air due to their tower falling down) reached all the way across Western and Central Wisconsin. You want "bang for your buck" advertisement, you advertised on WEAU. When your signal is seen in Coloma, WI, you know you've got a powerful signal. Is that why so many of those Central/Western counties have trended Republican?

Madison - Milwaukee Democrats, you know I love you. But seriously, the party doesn't just revolve around your two spheres of influence. It needs to include places like Eau Clare and honor their very important voice in our state! Let's re-focus our efforts on this county. We can get some serious votes here if we work at it.

We have issues in this county! This is the Land of Confusion!